My take on Na122 Lahore By-Election

Tomorrow is the polling for arguably the most important by-elections in resent years. Na122 is the constituency where PTI chief Imran Khan contested election by himself in last general elections. He was marginally defeated by Sardar Ayaz Sadiq of PMLn. The constituency includes the areas of Samanabad, Ichra, Shadman, Shah Jamal, Garhi Shahu, Dharam pura and Upper Mall. Imran Khan has been defeated from this constituency in 2002 and again in 2013 elections. The current by-election is far different and more important that any previous election on this seat. This is considered to be the election which could determine the future of Lahore’s politics which in turn determines Punjab and Pakistan politico-electoral future. So stakes are very high for both PMLn and PTI.

PMLn has put forward their time-tested candidate Sardar Ayaz Sadiq. He is son in law of the former chief justice of Punjab and from an old elite family of Lahore. Its interesting to know that Sardar Ayaz Sadiq started his political career from PTI and once was a friend of Imran Khan, PTI chairman. He is said to a junior to Imran khan at prestigious Aitcheson School. PMLn is trying its best to retain that seat and retain the impression that Lahore stands with PMLn through thick and thin. Consequence of loosing this seat will be a serious dent in their impression that Lahore is politically their land. An impression which they created after 2-3 decades of political struggle.

PTI candidate is Aleem Khan, a neo-super rich property tycoon of Lahore. He came to the political scene of Lahore during Musharraf era 1999-2007. He started his career from PMLq then joined PTI few years ago when PTI suddenly appears on the political scene with Lahore Jalsa. He is, from the super rich people of Lahore, who has made lots of money courtesy Musharraf regime. He has lots of allegations of land grabbing, illegal occupations and other wrong doings of the property business. But none proven in court. PTI choice of him as candidate over any other ideologue is a very a right decision because he is street smart and has access to unlimited money to spend on this election.

For PTI this election is equally important because if they loose this election then the impression that they can really challenge and beat PMLn will be further dented. They claim that they are the only challenge to PMLn (as they believe PPP is politically dead) and they can beat PMLn in an election even at their home turf of Lahore. This is yet to be substantiated and proven. In all other recent by-elections in other parts of Pakistan PTI fail to prove their claim.

it’s very difficult to predict what would be the result of this Election as there is lot of dust of confusion thrown by the social and electronic media of Pakistan. All this is making it difficult to make a definite prediction. As far as the social media and the Private television channels are reporting it appears to be a very tightly fought battle with Imran Khan’s PTI having an edge. But knowing PMLn, their working, their modus oprandi I am of the opinion that PMLn will win NA122 with an extended margin as compared to 2013 elections.