Sunday 17 August 2014

Imran Khan and Long March

I think there are serious problems with his ego, personality, decision making, and risk analysis capacity.

I have never been his supporter but my analysis is that; following things went wrong with all this Long March Saga.

1-Complete failure of management , no arrangements, no consideration for rain, weather. No arrangements to keep people engaged and interacted while Khan Sb was still travelling from Lahore to Islamabad.

2- Far less number of people joining him, even from start Lahore. GT road didn't came up as per expectations which lead to slowness of the March. Which lead to disappointment of people of KPK who were already arrived in Islamabad when Long March has only reached Gujranwala.

3- Set of demands were wrong.Putting so much pressure on resignation of Nawaz Sharif, though sounds good and galvanises Insanfians, but politically it brought all the pro democracy forces to the side of Nawaz Sharif.  If they would have put thrust on fair investigations of rigging allegations almost everyone would have stood with PTI. Nawaz would have been politically alienated and would have surrendered to demands. So a complete success at the end of Long March could have been achieved. That would have sound much better and would have been more sellable.

4-Now PTI is stuck in Loose loose situation on both sides. Nawaz Sharif is unlikely to resign, anything less than nawaz sharif's resignation would be deemed as failure. Martial Law will also be failure for everyone. Main issue is left behind (ie poll rigging investigations) PMLN/NS will release Musharraf and blame PTI/PAT for that.

5- Inspite of all that; we must commend PTIs workers,less in numbers, but they stood through harsh rain, well done to them. I feel "Burgerz" has betrayed PTI. But we must appreciate PTI workers mainly from KPK, they stood in  the harsh of the situations. low moral, no leadership, who left and ran away to their cosy beds and they stood fast
#RespectToThem.

6- Decision of doing Long March was #PAT was politically wrong.Rather than synchronising each other it end up being compared with each other. Which didn't help both #PAT and #PTI


But I agree situation is still fluid.. and any final prediction is very difficult

Sunday 10 August 2014

long March of Imran Khan and Qadri

My understanding of current situation 

Legal options
1- Nawaz Sharif resigns under pressure; my assessment he will not do that. he didn't do in 1999 so very unlikely to do that this time 
2- supreme court disqualify Nawaz Sharif very unlikely 

illegal options 
1-COAS ,meray aziz hum watnoo option, possible if situation turns very ugly. possible but unlikely and is not in interest of imran khan's. if nawaz sharif has to go it will be his favourable choice rather than resigning 
2- technocrats govt (with army backing) unlikely as it doesn't suit anyone (ie IK, PMLn, Establishment)

What i think will most likely happen
IK will come, do a good show, will do lots of Nawaz sharif bashing, and under some pre-conditions fulfilled will go back with nawaz sharif still being PM accepting some of Imran Khan legitimate demands.